This is not 1989 when the Berlin Wall came down and democracy sprouted in Central Europe. North Africa and the Middle East are facing convulsions and it is more likely that perpetual conflict and civil war will be the future rather than stable democracies. As Professor Niall Ferguson points out, countries like Libya and Egypt have more in common with Pakistan than Poland. The populations are highly illiterate and there is sectarian conflict. This has been the pattern of history in the region from the beginning. Dictators arose in the Middle East and were embraced by elements of the population because they brought relative stability to the country.
Go read the whole thing. You should also make sure BigPeace.com is one the websites you visit every day to keep abreast on what is going on in world.
Ferguson is highly pessimistic about what we are witnessing, and believes that $200 barrel oil is around the corner. I fear he might be correct.